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2023 GDP Outlook Improves After Upbeat Q2 Print But Headwinds Intensify In 2H2023

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Yesterday's better-than-expected Q2 GDP outturn prompted several desks to update their growth forecasts. Goldman Sachs now expect South African GDP to grow +0.9% Y/Y this year (versus +0.4% Y/Y previously), with the 2024 estimate revised to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.7%. Absa see 2023 GDP growth at +1.0% Y/Y rather than +0.7%, while Nedbank upgraded their forecast to +0.6% Y/Y from +0.4%. However, Absa warned that growth will be subdued in 2H amid continued financial pressure on consumers and weaker terms of trade. Furthermore, Nedbank said that "the outlook for the rest of the year remains relatively bleak," as "load-shedding has returned with a vengeance" and "cyclical headwinds are intensifying".
  • The executive summary of the report into the docking of sanctioned Russian cargo vessel Lady R in South Africa revealed that the ship was delivering equipment for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) ordered from a company based in the UAE. Neither the SANDF nor any South African agency was involved in choosing the vessel which delivered the order. The investigation found no evidence to back claims that the ship subsequently set sail loaded with weapons for Russia.
  • The Bureau for Economic Research will release its quarterly business confidence survey at 11:00BST/12:00SAST.
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