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2024 Rate Inversion Cut Notably Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

CANADA
  • BAX futures have been chipping away at ADP-inspired losses but still hold a sizeable cheapening on the day, especially later into 2024.
  • Front Sep’23 (-0.01), Dec’23 (-0.03), Jun’24 (-0.09) and Dec’24 (-0.13).
  • The combination pushes the BAU3/Z3 spread back to +5.5bps for levels prior to Friday’s monthly GDP and BoC surveys. There’s a more notable push higher in BAU3/Z4 to-67bps (from -79bp yesterday) for its smallest in absolute terms since October.
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS sits at +16.5bp for next week’s decision, building to a cumulative +40bp by year-end.
  • It comes ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, with analysts looking for a bounce after May’s -17k employment was hit by a slump in the <25yr old cohort. Analysts entries are closely tied between 5.2% and 5.3% for the u/e rate (series low of 4.9% in Jul’22) although wage growth could moderate in Y/Y terms.

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