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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Subsequent FOMC speakers have followed Williams’ lead in pushing back against near-term rate cut prospects to one degree or another. Given the holiday season in the interim, just 7 of the 19 FOMC participants at the December meeting have made commentary on monetary policy since then: NY’s Williams, Philadelphia’s Harker, Chicago’s Goolsbee, Richmond’s Barkin, Atlanta’s Bostic, SF’s Daly, and Cleveland’s Mester.
- The next meeting on January 30-31 will reflect the latest FOMC voting rotation: out are Chicago’s Goolsbee, Philadelphia’s Harker, Minneapolis’ Kashkari, and Dallas’ Logan; in are Richmond’s Barkin, Atlanta’s Bostic, SF’s Daly, and Cleveland’s Mester.
- Notably, all of the 2024 regional Fed president voters (including NY’s Williams) have spoken since the December meeting.
- Bostic said he included 50bp of cuts in his 2024 forecast; Mester 75bp (though she will be retiring in June); Daly said her forecasts were “very close” to the 75bp cuts in the FOMC median. Barkin said his “perspective” is that inflation will be “a little stubborner” than the average expectation.
- Recall that in the December projections, the median Dot showed 75bp of cuts to 4.6% in 2024. A solid core of 11 / 19 members pencilled in rates between 4.50-5.00% at end-2024, with 5 lower than that, and 3 seeing zero / 1 cut.
- Our updated Hawk-Dove matrix has been updated to incorporate the 2024 voting rotation, and reflects the FOMC’s cutting bias.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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