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OIL: 2025 Faces Balanced Oil Market: Platts AltView

OIL
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Platts alternative oil outlook sees a more finely balanced market, with OPEC further extending cuts and Iran exports squeezed, Shin Kim, Head of AltView said.

  • “OPEC has no room to unwind cuts this year due to supply from other markets,” Kim said.
  • She added that OPEC’s policy is more impactful on Russian supply than sanctions. Hence there is little risk in net Russian flows over Ukraine policy, which should hold steady.
  • The balanced market outlook is also driven by expectations of a maximum pressure campaign on Iran ramping up, including crack downs on buying from China.
  • Platts alternative view sees a 1m bbl loss in Iran crude and condensate exports by end of year.
  • Without a big drop from Iran, there would be an oversupply of 700-800k b/d.
  • In this case, OPEC could be talking about further cuts rather than unwinding.
  • Platts alternative view has conservative demand growth at 1m b/d.
  • Kim also forecast that commercial crude inventories won’t build outside of China. This leaves the market vulnerable to major supply losses.
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Platts alternative oil outlook sees a more finely balanced market, with OPEC further extending cuts and Iran exports squeezed, Shin Kim, Head of AltView said.

  • “OPEC has no room to unwind cuts this year due to supply from other markets,” Kim said.
  • She added that OPEC’s policy is more impactful on Russian supply than sanctions. Hence there is little risk in net Russian flows over Ukraine policy, which should hold steady.
  • The balanced market outlook is also driven by expectations of a maximum pressure campaign on Iran ramping up, including crack downs on buying from China.
  • Platts alternative view sees a 1m bbl loss in Iran crude and condensate exports by end of year.
  • Without a big drop from Iran, there would be an oversupply of 700-800k b/d.
  • In this case, OPEC could be talking about further cuts rather than unwinding.
  • Platts alternative view has conservative demand growth at 1m b/d.
  • Kim also forecast that commercial crude inventories won’t build outside of China. This leaves the market vulnerable to major supply losses.