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2H24 Cut Expectations Drift Higher After Initial Parallel Shift In Rate Path

CANADA
  • CORRA futures are starting to see a slightly larger rally 45 minutes after the BoC decision and MPR, with nearer-term contracts sticking to the 2.5bp rally for the U3 and 4bp rally for the Z3/M4, but increasing thereafter up to 7bps for the Jun'25, such is the nature of continued heavy data dependence.
  • The terminal implied yield is still seen in the Dec’23 (+8.5bps), with 2024 cuts building only modestly to 49bps to the Dec'24 from 47bp prior.
  • BoC-dated OIS currently points to a terminal with about 10bps of cumulative tightening at the January meeting from 50/50 or slightly higher beforehand.
  • Governor Macklem's press conference comes at the top of the hour.

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