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2H24 Rates Lift, Waller and Bowman Watched For Post-CPI Clues

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged for the next three FOMC meetings but further out push higher to push back above pre-Thanksgiving levels (but still within yesterday's range after rallying through the session).
  • Peak tightening is seen with a cumulative 3.5bp for January, with a first cut from current levels in June (26bp cumulative) and 86bp of cumulative cuts to end-2024.
  • There is a heavy Fedspeak schedule today including Governors Waller and Bowman, both with text and on monetary policy specific areas.
  • Neither of these permanent voters have spoken on policy since softer than expected US CPI on Nov 14. Bowman has been at the most hawkish end of the FOMC spectrum and last said Nov 7 and 9 that she expects a need for a further rate hike.
  • We suspect those two will be the highlight for monetary policy relevant discussions today, with Goolsbee’s interview on Marketplace coming after the close.


  • 1000 Goolsbee (’23) opening Agriculture Conf. (text tbd)
  • 1000 Waller (voter) on economic outlook (text)
  • 1045 Bowman (voter) on monetary policy (text)
  • 1305 Barr (voter) on Community Reinvt Act (text)
  • 1430 Paese (non-voter) in Q&A on FedNow payments system (no text)
  • 1530 Barr (voter) fireside chat on Community Reinvt Act (no text)
  • 1700 Goolsbee (’23) interview on Marketplace (no text

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