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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA
Opinion polling just over five weeks out from the Australian parliamentary elections shows Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his centre-right Liberal/National Party coalition have a tough task ahead in retaining power for a fourth consecutive election.
- Australia uses the 'instant run-off' voting system, where voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no single candidate in a constituency wins a majority of votes, the candidate with the fewest first preferences is eliminated and their second preferences distributed. This process continues until one candidate has an overall majority of preferences.
- The centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) hold a lead in polls for both the primary vote and the two-party preferred (2PP) votes. The average level of support in April for the coalition stands at 34% compared to 37% for the ALP, while on the 2PP vote Labor leads 54% to 44% in the same time period.
- In 2019, Morrison and the coalition produced a shock result, defying polls that were showing the ALP ahead and winning a majority. This has raised speculation of a similar come-from-behind win in 2022. However, it should be noted that the coalition is starting from a worse position in 2022 than in 2019. In the same time period (mid-April) before the 2019 election, the ALP's lead over the coalition in the 2PP vote stood at 52% to 48%, while the coalition held a slender lead of 37% to 35% in primary vote polling.
Chart 1. Two-Party Preferred Vote, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic, Newspoll-YouGov, Essential, Ipsos, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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