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2Y Inflation Breakeven Dips As 5Y5Y Steady

US TSYS
  • The slide on the day in 2Y yields (-9.5bps) comes with lower inflation expectations, with the breakeven unwinding half of Friday’s late rise to sit 7bps lower at 4.09%, helped by the slide in oil.
  • Real yields are also partly behind the move, -3bps on the day at -1.47% and -16bps from last week’s highs in contrast to 10Y real yields unwinding the intraday rise to new cycle highs but on a par with last week’s highs.
  • As for longer-term inflation measures, the 5Y breakeven falls to the lowest since early March (3.16%) and is still seen to cool off with a 5Y5Y of 2.48%, although the latter more stubbornly trends sideways.

5Y5Y breakeven (yellow), 5Y breakeven (white) and spread (green)Source: Bloomberg

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