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2Y Yield Testing 50DMA Support
- Poland 2Y bond has been testing its 50DMA support in the past two days after consolidating sharply this month.
- Even though investors previously estimated the NBP terminal rate to be slightly below or at 3%, the upward revision in inflation forecasts amid surging energy prices could prolong the central bank tightening cycle in H1 2022.
- Following Glapinski comments at the latest press conference, the NBP should proceed with at least one 50bps hike in the coming meetings (very likely in February), which could bring the policy rate up to 2.75%
- It is also likely that the NBP will proceed with another 50bps hike at the March or April meeting depending on new inflation and economic data, which would levitate the policy rate up to March 2013 highs (3.25%).
- Next support to watch below 3.0550% (DMJA) stands at 3%, followed by 2.8620%.
- On the topside, key resistance to watch stands at 3.31%.
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.