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2Y Yields Trimmed With Fed Terminal But Still North of 5%

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys twist steepen as the front-end and belly see a 3-4bp rally, only gathering momentum in European hours having faded weaker-than-expected China PPI and CPI inflation at the time. It follows Fed terminal rate expectations being pared back slightly after pushing to fresh cycle highs late yesterday, as markets turn attention away from Powell to tomorrow’s payrolls report. The long-end underperforms ahead of 30Y supply later today.
  • 2YY -4.2bp at 5.028%, 5YY -2.7bp at 4.322%, 10YY -0.6bp at 3.985% and 30YY +0.6bp at 3.901%. 2s10s at -104bp having breached -110bps yesterday.
  • TYM3 trades unchanged at 110-29+ in a tight range of 110-23+-110-31+ with notably below average volumes. The trend needle still points south, sitting close to support at the bear trigger of 110-12+ (Mar 2 low).
  • Data: Challenger Job Cuts Feb (0730ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Household chg in net worth Q4 (1200ET).
  • Fedspeak: Limited to VC Supervision Barr on crypto (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810TZN8) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 4W, $55B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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