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40-Year Treasury Yield Downtrend Under Threat

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION

From our monthly Global Macro Outlook, a long-term chart that's "suddenly" worth paying close attention to: the 10Y US Treasury yield going back to the early 1980s.

  • The long-term secular downtrend in yields is of currently in danger of being broken to the upside (current resistance comes in around 2.50%, though it would probably take a move above 2.75% to affirm the decades-old bond bull market is at least pausing if not over.
  • The downtrend can be adjusted slightly, but it's evident the 10Yr is facing the same test seen most recently in 2007 (GFC) and 2018. Both times, of course, yields resolved to the downside.


Source: BBG, MNI

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