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46bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures benefit from Thursday’s late uptick in core global FI markets, leaving contracts 0.25-2.5 firmer through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~46bp of cuts through year end, with the first 25bp move fully discounted come the end of the Sep MPC. A little over 85% odds of a 25bp cut are priced through the Aug meeting.
  • Local headline flow has been dominated by political matters, with the ruling Conservative Party losing a seat in a by-election and struggling in local elections.
  • A reminder that previous speculation had pointed to a potential leadership challenge for PM Sunak in the wake of poor results.
  • Final services PMI data headlines a limited UK calendar.
  • U.S. matters are likely to dominate, with the latest labour market report due at 13:30 London.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.200-0.0
Jun-245.108-9.2
Aug-244.986-21.4
Sep-244.914-28.6
Nov-244.814-38.6
Dec-244.740-46.0
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SONIA futures benefit from Thursday’s late uptick in core global FI markets, leaving contracts 0.25-2.5 firmer through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~46bp of cuts through year end, with the first 25bp move fully discounted come the end of the Sep MPC. A little over 85% odds of a 25bp cut are priced through the Aug meeting.
  • Local headline flow has been dominated by political matters, with the ruling Conservative Party losing a seat in a by-election and struggling in local elections.
  • A reminder that previous speculation had pointed to a potential leadership challenge for PM Sunak in the wake of poor results.
  • Final services PMI data headlines a limited UK calendar.
  • U.S. matters are likely to dominate, with the latest labour market report due at 13:30 London.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.200-0.0
Jun-245.108-9.2
Aug-244.986-21.4
Sep-244.914-28.6
Nov-244.814-38.6
Dec-244.740-46.0