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48bp OF '24 BoE Cuts Priced, Haskel Comments Due Later Today

STIR

SONIA futures are little changed to +1.5 as Bunds recover from overnight lows, with the French political situation dominating thus far. BoE-dated OIS is little changed, ~15.5bp of cuts priced through August and ~48bp of easing showing through Dec.

  • The latest KPMG-REC Report on Jobs provided mixed inputs for the BoE. Elsewhere, the latest BCC survey showed that fewer firms plan to raise prices over the next 3 months.
  • On net, this lower tier data shouldn’t prevent BoE loosening over the coming months, but sticky wages in the REC survey will provide a source of caution.
  • The hawkish BoE wing starts the post-election blackout communique. Haskel is due to speak at 17:15 London. His last MPC meeting will be in August. We don’t expect him to hint at cuts at this stage (if he does that is a very dovish sign). Pill & Mann are due later in the week (Wednesday).
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.044-15.6
Sep-244.972-22.8
Nov-244.824-37.6
Dec-244.722-47.8
Feb-254.585-61.5
Mar-254.492-70.8
May-254.368-83.2
Jun-254.281-91.9

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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