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5-10Y U.Mich Inflation Expectations Surprise Lower But Within Typical Range

US DATA
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment was softer than expected in the July preliminary report, falling to 66.0 (cons 68.5) after 68.2, leaving it at its weakest since Nov’23.
  • Inflation expectations were as expected for the short-term but more notably drifted lower 5-10Y out.
  • 1Y: 2.9% (cons 2.9%) after 3.0%, lowest since March.
  • 5-10Y: 2.9% (cons 3.0%) after 3.0%, lowest since the 2.8% in March which marked a rare break from the 2.9-3.1% that is has mostly held since mid-2021.
  • Note that for the 5-10Y figures, three of the six months in the first half of the year saw a -0.1pp revision with the final release (Mar, May & Jun), two saw no change and one saw a 0.1pp upward revision (Jan).

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