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538 Remains Outlier As Election Models Shift Towards Trump

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The 538 presidential election model remains an outlier among the high-profile statistical-based election forecasts, noting that the presidential race remains a toss-up despite some polling indicating the first presidential debate may have negatively influenced public opinion of Biden.

  • 538 notes: "After a dismal performance at the first presidential debate, Biden has lost ground in our national polling average — essentially reversing the gains he made after Trump’s conviction.
  • "However, our forecast has not yet seen significant movement — it “knows” that it’s still relatively early and more polling twists and turns likely lie ahead. New economic data at the end of last week also helped boost Biden’s outlook as far as the “fundamentals” are concerned, counteracting Trump’s gains in the polls."
  • In comparison, models from 538 founder Nate Silver and The Economist both give Trump a roughly 73% implied probability of winning. The Hill/DDHQ forecast gives Trump a 60% implied probability of winning.
  • Silver wrote on July 1, in analysis of his model's updated forecast: “Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline [for Biden] ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for the president."
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The 538 presidential election model remains an outlier among the high-profile statistical-based election forecasts, noting that the presidential race remains a toss-up despite some polling indicating the first presidential debate may have negatively influenced public opinion of Biden.

  • 538 notes: "After a dismal performance at the first presidential debate, Biden has lost ground in our national polling average — essentially reversing the gains he made after Trump’s conviction.
  • "However, our forecast has not yet seen significant movement — it “knows” that it’s still relatively early and more polling twists and turns likely lie ahead. New economic data at the end of last week also helped boost Biden’s outlook as far as the “fundamentals” are concerned, counteracting Trump’s gains in the polls."
  • In comparison, models from 538 founder Nate Silver and The Economist both give Trump a roughly 73% implied probability of winning. The Hill/DDHQ forecast gives Trump a 60% implied probability of winning.
  • Silver wrote on July 1, in analysis of his model's updated forecast: “Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline [for Biden] ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for the president."