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5s30s within 1bp of the lows of the year

  • It's worth keeping an eye on 5s30s in gilts as we are now within 1bp of the low of the year seen on June 21 at 80.5bp.
  • We noted on 6 July as we retested the 200-dma that if we failed to convincingly break above, the bearish breakout would likely continue and signal a return down to 80.5bp.
  • If we break below here, it will consolidate the broader downtrend with the October 2020 low of 77.5bp the next target.
  • Below here, the 50% retracement of the March 2020 low to the March 2021 high comes in at 73.2bp.

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