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A 15bps Hike Is In Play for September 21 Policy Meeting

HUNGARY
  • Earlier this morning, NBH Deputy Governor Virag said that the central bank is still targeting price stability and is determined to curb prices as it poses a threat to the economic recovery.
  • This week, we saw that CPI inflation accelerated to 4.9% in August (vs. 4.7% exp.) and up from 4.6% the previous, remaining significantly above the NBH 4-percent upper tolerance band.
  • The NBH has embarked into a tightening cycle since June and delivered its third consecutive 30bps hike last months, which increased the base rate to 1.50%.
  • Even though odds of another 30bps hike at the next meeting on September 21 have increased following the positive surprise in inflation, we think that the NBH will continue its tightening cycle with smaller hikes (15bps) in the coming meetings as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
  • HUF has been depreciating in the past few days against major crosses, leading to a small consolidation in equities after the BUX index reached a new record high on Tuesday.
  • USDHUF ticks higher this morning, gradually approaching its ST resistance at 297.50 (200DMA); a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 299.70 (50DMA). On the downside, first support stands at 295, followed by 292.
  • Hungary 10Y Yield continues to reach new highs after breaking above the 3% resistance last week; key level to watch on the topside remains at 3.22%. On the downside, first support stands at 3%, followed by 2.86% (50D/100DMA).
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