MNI: US Feb Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Rises - NY Fed
MNI (WASHINGTON) - U.S. consumers' uncertainty about inflation rose in February as median inflation expectations rose a tenth to 3.1% at the year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at the three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0%, according to a monthly New York Fed survey.
Survey respondents' uncertainty regarding future inflation outcomes increased at all three horizons. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1ppt to 3.3% and year-ahead commodity price expectations increased for all commodities. Median expected price growth for gas increased by 1.1ppts to 3.7%, and 0.5ppt for food to 5.1%, its highest level since May 2024. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Closely Gauge Inflation Views - Schoenle)
Households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now jumped 5.4ppts to 39.4%, its highest reading since September 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.3ppts to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree and largest for those under age 40.