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A Generally Market Positive Result for Election Run-Off

BRAZIL
  • Left-wing challenger Lula has won Brazil's Presidential election race in the tightest election in modern history: Lula won 50.9% of the popular vote vs. Bolsonaro's 49.1%.
  • Analysts see the tight outcome as limiting Lula's agenda considerably, but the results should be market-positive, with little sign of domestic unrest just yet. Brazilian ETFs have surged ahead of the open later today, suggesting some Brazilian outperformance later Monday.
  • Incumbent Bolsonaro will not contest the outcome, according to Antagonista. However, Bolsonaro will not call Lula to congratulate him either.
  • Globo reported that lawmakers and ministers who wanted to speak with Bolsonaro after the result was announced were told that the President would not be meeting anyone, including his closest aides.
  • Supreme Electoral Court chief Alexandre de Moraes has also played down the potential for election outcome being challenged, based on the conversations he had with both candidates before announcing the official result.

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