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A$ Up Off Weekly Lows - RBA Mins, Wages And Jobs Data Eyed Next Week

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Important local data events are on tap next week, but the A$ is moving in lock step with broader risk appetite at the moment (see chart below).

  • AUD/USD ran out of steam ahead of 0.6890, but could end its run of 6 daily losses if equities can find some resilience as we progress into the EU & US sessions. Weekly losses for AUD/USD stand at ~2.75%.
  • Locally, next week's data calendar holds some important releases. RBA minutes are out on Tuesday, wages data on Wednesday, followed by employment figures on Thursday.
  • The minutes will be eyed for any clues on the size of the June rate hike. Market expectations have been pared back this week, but this has largely reflected global developments rather any domestic shifts.
  • The market expects Q1 wages growth of 0.8% QoQ, 2.5% (versus 0.7% & 2.3% previously). The result may not shift market thinking around the RBA a great deal, as the central bank puts greater emphasis on its liaison program for current wages intel (a point confirmed by our MNI INSIGHT: RBA Comfortable With Stronger Wages Growth).
  • For jobs, the market is looking for +30k in April, which would take the unemployment rate down to 3.9% (versus 4.0% previously).
  • The final week of the election Federal election campaign will also be in focus, with the election held Saturday the 21st of May. The Labor Party leads in opinion polls ahead of the incumbent Liberal/National coalition.

Fig 1: AUD/USD and global equities

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Important local data events are on tap next week, but the A$ is moving in lock step with broader risk appetite at the moment (see chart below).

  • AUD/USD ran out of steam ahead of 0.6890, but could end its run of 6 daily losses if equities can find some resilience as we progress into the EU & US sessions. Weekly losses for AUD/USD stand at ~2.75%.
  • Locally, next week's data calendar holds some important releases. RBA minutes are out on Tuesday, wages data on Wednesday, followed by employment figures on Thursday.
  • The minutes will be eyed for any clues on the size of the June rate hike. Market expectations have been pared back this week, but this has largely reflected global developments rather any domestic shifts.
  • The market expects Q1 wages growth of 0.8% QoQ, 2.5% (versus 0.7% & 2.3% previously). The result may not shift market thinking around the RBA a great deal, as the central bank puts greater emphasis on its liaison program for current wages intel (a point confirmed by our MNI INSIGHT: RBA Comfortable With Stronger Wages Growth).
  • For jobs, the market is looking for +30k in April, which would take the unemployment rate down to 3.9% (versus 4.0% previously).
  • The final week of the election Federal election campaign will also be in focus, with the election held Saturday the 21st of May. The Labor Party leads in opinion polls ahead of the incumbent Liberal/National coalition.

Fig 1: AUD/USD and global equities

Keep reading...Show less