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Still Pushing Higher

AUDNZD

The AUD/NZD cross has recovered during today's session, currently tracking close to 1.1040. The pair struggled above 1.1050 through the mid-May period, so this could offer some near term resistance.

  • The A$ continues to outperform in the G10 FX space, being the only currency recording gains against the USD so far today.
  • A weaker tone to some equity markets (HK/China) and higher USD/CNH levels are yet to weigh. USD/CNH has risen back to 6.7000, around 0.30% above the NY close.
  • Better than expected Q1 GDP, including a surge in the terms of trade, is helping at the margin, although sell-side economists are noting the challenges facing the economy going forward. Inventories are not expected to contribute as strongly to growth going forward
  • Still, on a relative basis Australia has more momentum than NZ in the near term, as we highlighted yesterday in terms of relative business survey performance
  • The AUD/NZD cross still looks too high relative to the 2yr spread, see the chart below, but the spread has resumed trending higher in AU's favor.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD & 2yr Spread

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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