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A$ Back Above 0.6900, Retail Sales Data the Focus Next Week

AUD

AUD/USD has pushed back above 0.6900, on improved equity risk appetite this afternoon. The currency is around flat on levels from the end of last week (0.6930, versus current spot of 0.6915). Still, the currency is the weakest performer within the G10 FX bloc over the past week.

  • Declining commodity prices, particularly base metals, has weighed on cross performance, although we are off worst levels for both copper and iron ore.
  • Local yields have slumped as well, pushing the AU-US2yr spread to multi week lows of close to -30bps. A reminder that RBA Governor Lowe is scheduled to take part in a panel discussion later today (1230 BST, 9:30PM AEST).
  • Next week there are a number of data releases, but most focus is likely to rest with Wednesday's retail sales print for May. The market expects a +0.3% rise versus +0.9% for the previous month.
  • We have seen a very sharp fall in Australian consumer sentiment in recent months, as higher inflation and interest rate rises bite.
  • RBA Governor Lowe has stated on numerous occasions the strong buffer from high household savings rates though, which is expected to provide an offset to higher cost of living expenses.
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