January 06, 2025 08:13 GMT
STIR: A Little Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Priced For '25
STIR
Weakness in the long end has triggered hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs during early ’25, leaving ~103bp of easing priced through Dec vs. ~105bp late Friday and 115-120bp seen ahead of the Christmas break.
- Euribor futures 2.0 to 4.0 lower.
- ERZ5 ~10 ticks off its early November low.
- Services PMI data (final for Germany, France & the Eurozone) is due today, as is the flash German CPI data.
- Preliminary Eurozone CPI data is due tomorrow. The BBG survey median looks for +2.4% Y/Y for the headline CPI release vs. +2.2% in Nov.
- Our full preview of that release can be found here.
ECB Meeting |
€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)
Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jan-25
2.654
-26.5
Mar-25
2.375
-54.4
Apr-25
2.178
-74.1
Jun-25
2.046
-87.3
Jul-25
1.999
-92.0
Sep-25
1.936
-98.3
Oct-25
1.905
-101.4
Dec-25
1.888
-103.1
Keep reading...Show less
107 words