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STIR: A Little Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Priced For '25

STIR

Weakness in the long end has triggered hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs during early ’25, leaving ~103bp of easing priced through Dec vs. ~105bp late Friday and 115-120bp seen ahead of the Christmas break.

  • Euribor futures 2.0 to 4.0 lower.
  • ERZ5 ~10 ticks off its early November low.
  • Services PMI data (final for Germany, France & the Eurozone) is due today, as is the flash German CPI data.
  • Preliminary Eurozone CPI data is due tomorrow. The BBG survey median looks for +2.4% Y/Y for the headline CPI release vs. +2.2% in Nov.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.

ECB Meeting

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Weakness in the long end has triggered hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs during early ’25, leaving ~103bp of easing priced through Dec vs. ~105bp late Friday and 115-120bp seen ahead of the Christmas break.

  • Euribor futures 2.0 to 4.0 lower.
  • ERZ5 ~10 ticks off its early November low.
  • Services PMI data (final for Germany, France & the Eurozone) is due today, as is the flash German CPI data.
  • Preliminary Eurozone CPI data is due tomorrow. The BBG survey median looks for +2.4% Y/Y for the headline CPI release vs. +2.2% in Nov.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less