A Look At What The Betting Markets Have To Say On The Race For Fed Chair

A reminder that late Monday saw BBG flag comments from Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown, who revealed that he was told by White House officials to expect an "imminent" announcement re: President Biden's pick to Chair the Federal Reserve. Brown said "I'm not going to speculate who I think it might be now. I assume the decision's been made and they haven't announced it, but I don't even know that."

• The incumbent, Jerome Powell, remains the favourite in betting markets, although the odds on that particular outcome have taken a hit in recent days after several press outlets noted that Lael Brainard's interview for the role went better than expected. BBG went as far as deeming her to be a "serious rival" for Powell, per a source report released last week.
• FOX's Charlie Gasparino suggested that Wall St. now sees odds re: a reappointment of Powell at just 50/50 after the decision was seen as a layup in favour of Powell not long ago. Betting market odds aren't quite as finely balanced, but the differential between Powell & Brainard has narrowed in recent days, leaving Powell priced at 67c, with Brainard on 32c.
• One development to note is the recent withdrawal of former Fed Vice Chair, Roger Ferguson, from a role at Apollo Global Management (before he even started work). Ferguson apparently has unspecified commitments he must fulfil with his prior employer (pension firm TIAA), which prevented him from taking up the role at Apollo. Ferguson may enter the running for any of the open positions at the Fed, although his chances of attaining the seat atop the central bank are seemingly slim at best.

Fig. 1: Odds re: Whom Will The Senate Next Confirm As Chair Of The Federal Reserve?

Source: MNI - Market News/PredictIt