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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
[Excerpt from MNI's US CPI Preview - full report here]
- With heighted uncertainty in non-PCE relevant categories this month, it’s perhaps not surprising that there’s a narrower range in analyst preliminary core PCE estimates ahead of tomorrow's US CPI release.
- Nomura and MS, with the two widest views for core CPI at 0.135-0.27% M/M respectively, are instead much more tightly grouped with 0.17-0.23% M/M for core PCE. Goldman sit in the middle at 0.20% M/M.
- This 0.20% mid-point would see an acceleration from the 0.08% M/M for core PCE in May (which surprised lower than already soft expectations) but it would mark a continuation of the reversal of the Q1 surge.
- Specifically, it would see core PCE inflation of 2.2% annualized in Q2 vs the 4.5% in Q1 having bounced after the particularly soft 1.6% in 4Q23 and 2.2% in 3Q23.
- This would no doubt boost the Fed’s confidence in being able to cut rates, but it will remain sensitive to upside surprises.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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