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A New Post-2000 High For 30Y Mortgage Rate

US DATA
  • MBA composite mortgage applications fell -1.3% in the week to Sep 22 (purchases -2%, refis -1%) to chip away at the 5.4% increase the prior week (although that was led by refis +13% with purchases +2%).
  • It came as the 30Y contract rate increased 10bps to 7.41% for a fresh high since 2000.
  • It shouldn’t have been too surprising with spreads to 10Y Treasury yields still hovering around the 300bps mark (where it’s averaged for the past six months), suggesting some possible further pain to come with the 10YY currently at 4.51% and 30Y at 4.64%.
  • The level of purchase applications remains just marginally off cycle lows at levels last seen in the mid-1990s.

MBA 30Y contract rate (white), 10Y Tsy yield (pink), spread (red) and level of purchase applications (green)Source: Bloomberg

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