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A note re Fed balance sheet policy changes......>

FED
FED: A note re Fed balance sheet policy changes today: two surveys by the New
York Fed of Market Participants and Primary Dealers are done before each FOMC
meeting in preparation for the meetings.
- They contain a lot of questions but they also contain some specific new qs
each time that are of interest to policymakers.
- Ahead of the June FOMC, surveys asked about the dollar and trade extensively.
- This time, they had a new q on balance sheet size, which indicates the Fed
will debate whether to end runoffs early as well as when to begin purchases
again. Also again (unsurprisingly) checking in on trade, yield curve and new
neutral rate estimates.
- The NY Fed doesn't reveal the responses until after Minutes are published, but
sometimes it is good to know what they are asking about coming into the meeting.
- Our read of Sell-Side analysis is that the market is 50/50 split on balance
sheet runoff ending early, but that the impact of such a move will be fairly
limited apart from signalling a slightly more dovish approach.

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