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A Pause After Yesterday's Bull Flattening

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a minor sell-off across the curve as they settle after yesterday afternoon’s sizeable bull flattening ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.
  • 2Y yields are +1.6bps at 0.649%, 5Y +2.0bps at 1.224%, 10Y +1.7bps at 1.433% and 30Y +1.7bps at 1.817%. The 2s10s spread of 78bps is close to recent lows which in turn are the lowest since Dec 2020.
  • TYH2 futures have traded in a tight range today at 130-25+, consolidating yesterday’s rally.
  • The Biden-Manchin call was “constructive” but Manchin still won’t yet back the $1.9T Build Back Better. He said “anything’s possible” when asked if a deal was possible before the holiday.
  • The Senate votes today to increase the debt ceiling to extend govt funding until at least Nov 2022, with a good chance the House also votes today. Both are expected to pass, allowing Biden to sign it into law.
  • US data is overshadowed by the Fed tomorrow, but we have PPI inflation for Nov at 0830ET, with implications for next week’s PCE deflator print.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 0Y-2.25Y, appr $9.325B Vs. $10.875B prior (1030ET).
  • No issuance ahead of the debt ceiling vote.
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