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A$ Rallies On More Hawkish RBA Outlook


Aussie was higher on Tuesday after the RBA not only hiked rates 25bp as expected but the tone of the statement was also more hawkish. It outperformed the G10, apart from the yen. AUDUSD was up 1% and is currently trading around 0.6955. The USD DXY is down 0.2%.

  • AUDUSD reached a high of 0.6988 on comments from Fed Chairman Powell regarding the disinflation process. The uptrend remains in place and the bull trigger is the February 2 high of 0.7158. The move lower in recent days is a correction for an overbought trend condition. Initial support is at 0.6856, the February 6 low.
  • AUDNZD is up 0.8% driven by the more hawkish RBA. It is currently around 1.10, for the first time since mid-November. Aussie was down 0.1% against the yen to 91.17. AUDEUR is 1% higher to 0.6485 and AUDGBP +0.8% to 0.5775.
  • Equity markets were stronger with the Eurostoxx up 0.1% and the S&P up 1.3% and the Nasdaq +2.1% boosted by Powell’s comments. The VIX was down to 18.6%. WTI oil prices soared 4.3% to $77.31/bbl on signs of increasing demand and some supply issues. Copper was up 0.8% on the better tone for commodities and supply problems, whereas aluminium was down on news of the 200% US tariff on Russian aluminium. Iron ore is lower to around $118/t.
  • There is nothing scheduled in Australia today with the focus now on Friday’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy.

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