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A "Real" Robust Start To Q1 For Consumption

US DATA

The level of nominal U.S. retail sales hit a new monthly record in January ($697.0bln on a SA basis) - and as noted above, with a +3.0% M/M gain vs +0.5% M/M CPI, it meant that a rough proxy of the level of "real" retail sales erased the drop in Nov and Dec.

  • "Real" %Y/Y is still flat, but that's up from the contractions of the prior two months. See chart.
  • Overall there is little to no evidence here for the consumer rolling over, with the strong control group number set to boost Q1 GDP estimates.

Source: Census Bureau, BLS, MNI

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