MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key events and macro themes for the Asia Pac region.
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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • This week’s Q4 Tankan report points to a resilient growth/capex backdrop, along with solid inflation expectations. This should help offset some mixed details from Q3 GDP revisions. Still, market pricing for next week’s BoJ meeting remains well off late Nov highs. Sell-side economists are also skewed towards no change next week.  
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the tone of the statement shifted in a dovish direction. Governor Bullock was very clear that she did not know when the discussion around easing would occur.
  • There was weakness across the components of the November NAB business survey but cost pressures picked up while final product prices remained in line with the historical average.
     
  • CHINA
  • China’s Politburo meeting for December has sent a clear message to economy that bold economic support can be expected next year. The Politburo has vowed to ‘embrace a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025.
  • November exports rose +6.7% y/y following October’s rise of +12.7%. China’s imports for November unexpectedly contracted by -3.9%, following October’s contraction.
  • China’s November CPI printed at +0.2% y/y versus estimates of +0.4% y/y and October’s result of +0.3% y/y.
  • China bond yields continue to track sharply lower post the economic working group meeting.
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • Over the course of the week a further KRW70bn will be injected into markets, a further KRW30bn next week and an additional KRW300bn market stabilization fund to be established. Emergency bond buybacks, FX liquidity support and structural reforms for FX inflows will be implemented if needed.
  • Tomorrow’s second impeachment vote may garner enough support from the ruling party for the vote to succeed. 
     
  • ASIA
  • In India, this week saw the announcement of Sanjay Malhotra as the new central bank Governor, succeeding Shaktikanta Das who has completed his term and markets have sought to assess Malhotra’s intentions at a time where a growing divide exists between the views from the government and the views from the central bank when it comes to interest rates. India inflation edged down, but remains above the RBI’s target. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Outside of India, trends have mostly been negative, with South Korea close to flat. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (December 13 2024) .pdf

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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • This week’s Q4 Tankan report points to a resilient growth/capex backdrop, along with solid inflation expectations. This should help offset some mixed details from Q3 GDP revisions. Still, market pricing for next week’s BoJ meeting remains well off late Nov highs. Sell-side economists are also skewed towards no change next week.  
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the tone of the statement shifted in a dovish direction. Governor Bullock was very clear that she did not know when the discussion around easing would occur.
  • There was weakness across the components of the November NAB business survey but cost pressures picked up while final product prices remained in line with the historical average.
     
  • CHINA
  • China’s Politburo meeting for December has sent a clear message to economy that bold economic support can be expected next year. The Politburo has vowed to ‘embrace a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025.
  • November exports rose +6.7% y/y following October’s rise of +12.7%. China’s imports for November unexpectedly contracted by -3.9%, following October’s contraction.
  • China’s November CPI printed at +0.2% y/y versus estimates of +0.4% y/y and October’s result of +0.3% y/y.
  • China bond yields continue to track sharply lower post the economic working group meeting.
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • Over the course of the week a further KRW70bn will be injected into markets, a further KRW30bn next week and an additional KRW300bn market stabilization fund to be established. Emergency bond buybacks, FX liquidity support and structural reforms for FX inflows will be implemented if needed.
  • Tomorrow’s second impeachment vote may garner enough support from the ruling party for the vote to succeed. 
     
  • ASIA
  • In India, this week saw the announcement of Sanjay Malhotra as the new central bank Governor, succeeding Shaktikanta Das who has completed his term and markets have sought to assess Malhotra’s intentions at a time where a growing divide exists between the views from the government and the views from the central bank when it comes to interest rates. India inflation edged down, but remains above the RBI’s target. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Outside of India, trends have mostly been negative, with South Korea close to flat. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (December 13 2024) .pdf