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A Small Beat For A Noisy Empire Series

US DATA
  • The Empire Fed manufacturing index for July saw a small beat as it dipped to +1.1 (cons -3.5) after +6.6, close compared to some recent surprises.
  • Remember this is a particularly volatile measure, with a standard deviation for its monthly change since 2021 at a very wide 23pts (and 28pts since 2022), but two months at broadly similar levels has been unusual compared to its typical pattern of lurching lower again - see chart.
  • Some further progress in price components: “the prices paid index fell 5pts to 16.7, and the prices received index fell 5pts to 3.9. The prices paid index has now fallen nearly fifty points over the past year, and the prices received index has fallen a cumulative twenty-seven points.”
  • The 6-month ahead general conditions measure dipped from 18.9 to 14.3 having last held higher levels back in early 2022.

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