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A$ Underperforms As High Bar Set For March Fed Rate Cut

AUD

AUDUSD stabilised during the European morning after falling on the lower-than-expected inflation data. It rose back above 66c on weaker-than-expected US data and reached an intraday high of 0.6622. There was volatility around the Fed announcement and press conference but the pair ended up falling to an intraday low of 0.6551 after Powell said that a March cut is unlikely. It is currently trading around 0.6563. The USD index is 0.2% higher.

  • Aussie underperformed the G10 apart from NOK. The downtrend in AUDUSD continues with it approaching key support at 0.6526 on Wednesday. A break of this level would open up 0.6500. Initial resistance is 0.6626, 50-day EMA.
  • AUDJPY fell 1% to 96.47, close to the intraday low. AUDNZD is 0.2% lower at 1.0735 but mainly range traded following the Aussie Q4 CPI data. AUDEUR is down 0.3% to 0.6071 and AUDGBP -0.4% to 0.5176.
  • Equity markets were weaker with the S&P down 1.6% and the Euro stoxx -0.3%. Oil prices were sharply lower with Brent -2.5% to $80.41/bbl. Copper fell 0.5% and iron ore is around $131.50/t.
  • Today the final January Judo Bank manufacturing PMI, Q4 export/import prices, Q4 NAB business survey and December building approvals print. Export prices are forecast to rise strongly and a small increase in approvals is expected.
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