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ABIBB (A3, A-; Stable) New Issue Analysis

CONSUMER STAPLES

We see FV (vs. IPT) at +70 (+110), +95 (+135), +120 (+165).

  • Re. the 20's; the longest in Euro F&B similar rated space are the March & Sept 41's from Mondalez (A, BBB) at ~ +105 but trading at low cash prices <€70 - not useful as bnchmark.
  • Outside F&B names, we think Booking.com 44's (new issues) are a ceiling at +136bps & spread our FV -16bps to it - we've spread it wider vs. 36's trading -24 tighter given ABIBB 40's is moving wider/away from curve this morning.
  • Re. ratings; it received a one-notch upgrade last year from both majors into A3/A- & trades in-line with this - we don't see any rating risk in either direction (leverage fell from 3.5* to 3.4* yoy as Moody's wanted/expected).

Recent 20Y/2044 €IG Supply (all in multi-part deals, Engie/booking most recent)

  • €600m Engie (Baa1/BBB+); -25bps from IPT to price at +160; books skewed to 12Y/36's
  • €750m Booking.com (A3/A-); -30bps to price at +165, books skewed towards it
  • €1.5b Siemens (Aa3/AA-); -37bps to price at +103, books skewed towards it


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