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Accelerated Move Further Off Best Levels As Real Yields Lift

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen an acceleration further away from their best levels along with the continued rally in oil on Red Sea traffic disruption. Major tenors now trade 0.5bp richer to 5.5bp cheaper.
  • The twist steepening sees 2s10s pushing to -48.8bps (+4.2bps on the day), further off Friday’s low of of -54.7bps which had marked the lowest since late September.
  • The bulk of the 3.5bp climb in 10Y Tsy yields on the day is real yield led, although at 1.725% it’s only back into yesterday’s range and remains firmly below the ~2% levels seen prior to Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
  • TYH4 has touched a low of 112-10. It’s still a little way off support at 111-31+ (Dec 14 low) whilst the trend needle points north with resistance at 112-28+ and 113-12+ (Fibo projections of the Oct 19 – Nov 3 – Nov 13 price swings).
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