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BONDS: ACGB Richer, 10yr Yield 9bps Lower, RBA Minutes Tomorrow

BONDS
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Aussie bonds have outperformed in the APAC region today, curves have bull-flattened, with yields trading 5-10bps lower, with the 10yr outperforming. 

  • ACGB yields have rallied today, outperforming the US Tsys move, with the passing of the US stopgap bill supporting markets. The 2yr is is -5.7bps at 3.919%, while the 10yr is trading -9.2bps at 4.40%. The 2s10s dropped 3.5bps at now trades 46.50bps, it briefly touched 50bps on Friday.
  • ACGB futures are currently YM +6.0, VTA +4.5, XM +9.5
  • Swap curves are trading -2bps across the curve
  • Bill strip is +2 to +6,
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed 1-3bps across the the next few meetings today, with 17bps of cuts priced for Feb, or a 69% chance of a cut, the first full cut is now priced in for the April meeting. Further out the curves there is 72.5bps of cumulative cuts now priced by December 2025, down from 80bps to start the week.
  • Tomorrow we have the Minutes of the RBA December rate meeting, which will close out the year for any data releases.
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Aussie bonds have outperformed in the APAC region today, curves have bull-flattened, with yields trading 5-10bps lower, with the 10yr outperforming. 

  • ACGB yields have rallied today, outperforming the US Tsys move, with the passing of the US stopgap bill supporting markets. The 2yr is is -5.7bps at 3.919%, while the 10yr is trading -9.2bps at 4.40%. The 2s10s dropped 3.5bps at now trades 46.50bps, it briefly touched 50bps on Friday.
  • ACGB futures are currently YM +6.0, VTA +4.5, XM +9.5
  • Swap curves are trading -2bps across the curve
  • Bill strip is +2 to +6,
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed 1-3bps across the the next few meetings today, with 17bps of cuts priced for Feb, or a 69% chance of a cut, the first full cut is now priced in for the April meeting. Further out the curves there is 72.5bps of cumulative cuts now priced by December 2025, down from 80bps to start the week.
  • Tomorrow we have the Minutes of the RBA December rate meeting, which will close out the year for any data releases.