MNI Global Week Ahead - BOE Decision and US NFPs In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY - Eurozone Flash January Inflation
The Eurozone flash January inflation report is due at 1000GMT/1100CET on Monday (alongside the Italian numbers). Already released flash data from France, Germany and Spain suggests the 2.4% Y/Y Eurozone headline consensus (vs 2.4% prior) still stands, with a small downward surprise in France offset by an upward surprise in Spain. The German reading was in line at 2.8% Y/Y. On core, consensus of 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.7% prior) also appears to be tracking well, with the Spanish, French and German reports noting decelerations in services price growth. The ECB continued to signal confidence in the inflation outlook at its January decision, underscored by an expected moderation in wage growth through 2025. However, these expectations will still need to be realised in the hard data. Underlying momentum in core inflation – of which services is the main element– will remain a key focus for markets and the ECB. In December, 3m/3m services momentum reached a multi-year low of 2.61%. However, some analysts have questioned the ECB’s seasonal adjustment process in recent months, potentially increasing the risk of a reacceleration of momentum in the first few months of this year (as was seen in 2024).
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding
The coming week brings the US Treasury's quarterly refunding process, split as usual into two announcements: the financing estimates for FYQ2 and FYQ3 out Monday, followed Wednesday by the expected coupon auction sizes for the upcoming 3 months (February/March/April) along with associated materials. There aren't expected to be any surprises on upcoming auction sizes, with nominal Treasuries left unchanged for the 4th consecutive quarter. But with a new presidential administration comes new leadership at the Treasury, and there will be focus on any signals of the issuance path ahead under new Secretary Scott Bessent. The main question is whether Treasury changes its current guidance that it does not "anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." With expectations on this mixed, the risks run two ways: a softening or removal of this guidance would confirm that higher issuance is coming later this year (consensus is for sizes to be increased in August or November) amid expected fiscal loosening, while leaving it unchanged would likely see long-end Treasuries strengthen. Other areas to watch are Treasury's discussion of TGA cash usage and extraordinary measures to stay under the recently-reimposed debt limit, and any signal that they are considering altering the mix of funding (ie more towards the longer-end of the curve and away from bills).
WEDNESDAY - New Zealand Q4 Labour Market Report
THURSDAY - BOE Decision
The MPC is expected to cut Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.50% on Thursday in a meeting that will be accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report (MPR), new forecasts and a press conference. We would be surprised to see anything other than an 8-1 vote in favour of the 25bp cut with Mann likely to continue to dissent in favour of keeping Bank Rate on hold – this would repeat the same vote split that we saw at the last MPR meeting in November when a 25bp cut was also delivered. The bar to changes in guidance is likely still fairly high here so we would expect unchanged language surrounding “gradual” approach to removing restraint and that the “Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.” For the MPR, we don’t completely rule out a change to the scenarios (given Taylor introduced the possibility of a scenario in which Bank Rate needed to be brought below neutral) but we think that a change to introduce a “case zero” would more likely come in May or June (or potentially even March).
FRIDAY - US January Labour Market Report
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for January highlights the US macro week. It's a highly anticipated report that could alter recent trends considering it will include annual benchmark revisions along with seasonal factors and an updated birth-death model. The preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision pointed to the level of payrolls being some 818k lower than currently reported for back in March 2024. There’s a broad expectation from what we can gather that the hit seen next week won’t be as large but it could still be significant. We also watch the seasonal revisions closely, as whilst they should have a zero sum impact over the calendar year, we’ve noted some particularly favorable seasonal factors in recent months that have biased seasonally adjusted jobs growth higher. With these considerations in mind, the early days of the Bloomberg consensus points to nonfarm payrolls growth of 150k after a solid three-month average of 170k. Note that the unemployment rate from the separate household survey won’t be affected by these revisions, having already seen its own seasonal factor revisions last month. A population control will complicate month-on-month changes in the levels of employment and unemployment but shouldn’t be significant for the rate, which is seen unchanged at 4.1% having surprised lower with 4.09% in December. The recent high is technically 4.23% in November having first popped to 4.22% back in July.
Two other special mentions for the week are: 1) rare remarks from FOMC Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy late on Tuesday with both text and Q&A, having last spoke on Oct 9. 2) ISM services on Wednesday after its priced paid series jumped 5.9pts to 64.4 in December for the highest since Feb 2023.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The NBP is poised to stand pat on rates at a placeholder meeting next week, ahead of the release of the next Inflation Report in March, which could potentially revive the debate on the interest-rate outlook. Most members have pushed back their easing calls at least to 2H25, while Governor Glapinski's hawkish rhetoric continues to stand out.
THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)
Expectations of a 25bp cut from the CNB grew as Czech inflation undershot expectations in December, while Governor Michl described a resumption of easing as "very likely", following similar hints from Eva Zamrazilova and Jan Prochazka. While a cut seems to be the market's baseline scenario, Czechia's first flash CPI release, due on the day of the meeting, may still affect the final decision.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
Consensus has been building towards Banxico accelerating the easing pace in February, with the committee expected to cut the key rate by 50bps to 9.5%. This would be in line with prior dovish rhetoric in the December statement, which indicated that larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings. Supporting a bolder cut is the continued progress lower for headline inflation, weaker-than-expected domestic GDP data and the loss of one of the most hawkish voices of the committee. However, amid the heightened uncertainty related to US tariffs and the associated MXN sensitivity, the decision is by no means a foregone conclusion.
FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)
The Reserve Bank of India meets for the first time this year to decide on interest rates. Despite economic data being strong, GDP estimates for 2025 at 6.4%, PMI’s Manufacturing at +56.6, Industrial Production at+ 5.2%, India has a liquidity problem. In December the RBI surprised some market participants by cutting the reserve ratio by 50bps, and since has announced measures to buy bonds as an attempt to add liquidity. The next logical step, despite inflation still being on the high side, would be to cut rates. Consensus has moved quickly in recent weeks to a cut and we agree that the likely path (in the new Governor’s first meeting) is a cut of 25bps, with no change to the reserve ratio.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
03/02/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | - | GB | Bank of England Meeting | |
03/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
03/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
03/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Retail trade quarterly |
03/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
03/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
03/02/2025 | 0700/0200 | * | TR | Turkey CPI |
03/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
03/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
03/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
03/02/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
03/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
03/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
03/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
03/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
03/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
03/02/2025 | 1730/1230 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
03/02/2025 | 2330/1830 | US | St, Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
04/02/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
04/02/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
04/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
04/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
04/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
04/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
04/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
04/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
04/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
05/02/2025 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
05/02/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | average wages (p) |
05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
04/02/2025 | 0030/1930 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
05/02/2025 | 1400/1500 | EU | ECB's Lane at Euro area in 2025 event and Q&A | |
05/02/2025 | 1400/0900 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | housing vacancies |
05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
05/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
05/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
05/02/2025 | 0030/1930 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | SE | Flash CPI | |
06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
06/02/2025 | 1230/1230 | GB | BOE MPR press conference | |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
06/02/2025 | 1400/1400 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
06/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
06/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
06/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | *** | MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
06/02/2025 | 1930/1430 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
06/02/2025 | 2200/1700 | CA | BOC Governor speaks on panel at Banxico conference | |
06/02/2025 | 2210/1710 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
07/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance |
07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
07/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
07/02/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
07/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks in 'VI Encuentro Economico-Asegurador' conference | |
07/02/2025 | 1215/1215 | GB | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency briefing | |
07/02/2025 | - | EU | ECB to publish report on R* | |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
07/02/2025 | 1425/0925 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
07/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
07/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |