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ACGBs Curve Flatter Ahead Of RBA Rate Decision

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM unchanged) are mixed after US tsys traded little changed on Monday, while US equities traded higher. Looking ahead today, first up we have Retail Sales Ex Inflation consensus is -0.3% down from 0.30% in March but focus today is on the RBA where rates are widely expected to be kept on hold.

  • On Monday the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were up about 1%, with equity futures little changed on Tuesday morning, the calendar was empty overnight, with just a 3- and 6-month bill auction, investors favouring the 6-month paper as rate cut expectations come in to November from December.
  • US Tsys curves bull-flattened on Monday, with front-end yields rising 1bp the 2y10y closed -3.477 at -34.730.
  • The cash ACGB curve has followed US Tsys and bull-flattened, yields are 1.5bps cheaper to 1bps richer. while the AU-US 10-year yield differential is 0.25bp higher at -10.75bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing flat to 1bps lower.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is mixed out past July, with the market pricing 5bps of easing into the year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.395%.
  • Today, Retail Sales Ex Inflation at 11.30am, while focus will be on the RBA at 2.30pm and Gov Bullock statement at 3.30pm AEST.
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