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Active Trade, Heavy Volumes

US TSY FLOWS
  • Yield curves holding near 2Y lows (5s30s 42.495L) as short end remains under pressure post-data (2YY 1.2061% high, currently 1.1782% +.0278), 30Y Bonds outperforming/firmer (30YY 2.1162% -.0487). Heavy volumes, TYH2 well over 975k already.
  • FOMC aftermath: Some dealer research teams already starting to call for 50bps hike at the March 16 meeting (Nomura, w/150bp total for 2022, see 0929ET bullet).
  • Fading the short end sell-off, dealer desks report domestic real$ accts buying 2s, 3s and 5s, central bank buying 3s. On the flip-side, prop and fast$ selling 2s-5s, foreign real$ buying 10s-30s.
  • Reflected in short end Eurodollar futures, lead quarterly EDH2 traded as low as 99.475 (-0.060) but have rebounded slightly as market pricing sees chances the Fed coming out swinging with a 50bp hike off the bat as a little too aggressive.
  • Chances of a 50bp go at the June 15 FOMC a little more acceptable, however, June'22 futures (EDM2) traded down to 99.08 low (-0.115), 99.12 last.
  • Option accts have been hedging 25bp quarterly hikes starting in March for weeks already, have been adding judiciously to 50bp hikes in June and various adjustments to underlying futures out to 2023.

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