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Activity data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK activity data for March is due for release at 7:00BST. Note that the MPC did not have pre-release access to see this data ahead of yesterday's 25bp Bank Rate hike, so this will be the first time the MPC will have seen this data too.
  • For headline GDP M/M, consensus is fairly well split around a 0.0% print while for the Q1 GDP print, most look for a 0.1%Q/Q print. In terms of the Y/Y print the market looks for 0.2%Y/Y while the BOE's projections (which include its own backcast) look for a 0.1%Y/Y print.
  • As of yesterday's close markets were pricing around 19bp for the June meeting with a cumulative peak of 40bp by September. This data alone is unlikely to see a big move in those expectations or in the pound, absent a large surprise.

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