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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that China data prints tomorrow. First up is the 1yr MLF rate outcome. No change is expected from the current rate of 2.75%, with 1 forecaster, out of 18 surveyed by Bloomberg, looking for a 5bps cut. For MLF volumes the consensus sits at 325bn yuan (range is quite wide at 200-700bn yuan).
- Jan-Feb activity data is out a short term after these prints. The data is expected to firm as the re-opening theme gains traction. PMIs released at the start of the month point to an improved IP backdrop and better retail sales, see the charts below.
- The anecdotes also point this way, particularly in terms of consumer and services related activities. China export demand from places like South Korea and Taiwan has remained quite weak though, but this may reflect specific headwinds in the tech space as opposed to a much weaker China backdrop.
- Below we outline the data release, consensus expectation and forecast range.
- IP is forecast at 2.6% YTD Y/Y (the range is 1.8% to 5.5%).
- Retail sales is forecast at 3.5% YTD Y/Y (the range is -1.0% to 13.0%)
- Fixed asset investment is forecast at 4.5% YTD Y/Y (the range is range 2.0% to 6.0%).
- Property investment is expected at -8.5% YTD Y/Y (the range is -12.7% to 5.0%).
- The jobless rate is expected at 5.3% (range is 5.2% to 5.5%).
Fig 1: China IP & Manufacturing PMI
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: China Retail Sales & Non-manufacturing PMI
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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