MNI BRIEF: China House Prices Up In February

MNI BRIEF: China Data Shows Good Foundation Despite Issues

MNI BRIEF: China's Retail Sales Quicken To 4-Month High

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.24% In Week of Mar 17

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY2.5 Bln via OMO Monday

CHINA JAN-FEB INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.9% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.3% Y/Y: NBS

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 199; OIL RIGS 139; GAS RIGS 60

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 592; OIL RIGS 487; GAS RIGS 100

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR Due Monday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SWEDEN: Activity Data Key To Riksbank Outlook, EURSEK and USDSEK Techs Bearish

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

Although the Riksbank have now entered a more cautious phase of monetary policy setting, we think the bar to at least one more cut at some point this year is quite low. This suggests downside risks to market pricing for a year-end policy rate of 2.06% (i.e. less than one more 25bp cut, according to latest estimates from SEB).

  • Activity data over the next two weeks (LFS labour market, Economic Tendency Indicator and final Q4 GDP) will be key in assessing the extent to which past cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Although January CPI was much firmer than expected (details released next Tuesday), the Riksbank have emphasised that a stronger economy is “a necessary condition for inflation to stabilise close to the target going forward”.
  • Weak activity data could prompt a stalling of this month’s SEK rally, but technical conditions in EURSEK and USDSEK remain bearish for now.
  • EURSEK is 0.5% lower today, fully unwinding yesterday’s relief rally. The cross hovers around the Sep 27th low of 11.2450, clearance of which would expose the June 20th low at 11.1824.
  • USDSEK is down 1%, narrowing the gap to 10.6811 (the 50% retracement of the September – January bull leg).
197 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Although the Riksbank have now entered a more cautious phase of monetary policy setting, we think the bar to at least one more cut at some point this year is quite low. This suggests downside risks to market pricing for a year-end policy rate of 2.06% (i.e. less than one more 25bp cut, according to latest estimates from SEB).

  • Activity data over the next two weeks (LFS labour market, Economic Tendency Indicator and final Q4 GDP) will be key in assessing the extent to which past cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Although January CPI was much firmer than expected (details released next Tuesday), the Riksbank have emphasised that a stronger economy is “a necessary condition for inflation to stabilise close to the target going forward”.
  • Weak activity data could prompt a stalling of this month’s SEK rally, but technical conditions in EURSEK and USDSEK remain bearish for now.
  • EURSEK is 0.5% lower today, fully unwinding yesterday’s relief rally. The cross hovers around the Sep 27th low of 11.2450, clearance of which would expose the June 20th low at 11.1824.
  • USDSEK is down 1%, narrowing the gap to 10.6811 (the 50% retracement of the September – January bull leg).