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Activity data mixed but overall largely in line

UK DATA
  • No reaction in the pound to the UK activity data.
  • It's a little mixed, but broadly in line with expectations. Monthly GDP for September showed a faster pace of growth than expected (0.6%M/M rather than 0.4% exp) but this followed on from a 0.2ppt downward revision to August data and a 0.1ppt upward revision to July data.
  • Overall, that leaves Q3 GDP data up 1.3%Q/Q (1.5% exp) and as of September, GDP is now 0.6% below its pre-coronavirus peak of February 2020.
  • In terms of where we are versus Feb 2020 relative to their pre-Covid-19 peak:
    • Consumer-facing services 5.5% lower.
    • All other services 1.0% higher.
    • Services overall 0.3% lower.
    • Production: 1.4% lower.
    • Manufacturing 2.5% lower.
    • Construction 1.0% lower.
  • For the MPC, this data probably won't change any views. Momentum is a little better than expected, but actual output in line with expectations. Hence, the lack of market moves.
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