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FOREX: A$ & NZD Near Important Resistance Levels, USD Lower For The Week

FOREX

The USD BBDXY index sits little changed in the first part of Friday dealing, last near 1292.4. We have seen slight outperformance from NZD and AUD, but aggregate moves are modest at this stage. 

  • The BBDXY index is comfortably down for the week, with EUR and EU related currencies outperforming. Ukraine peace hopes, coupled with no fresh tariffs in the near term, is weighing on USD sentiment.
  • For today, NZD/USD is up a little over 0.20%, last near 0.5690. This brings us back within striking distance of the 50-day EMA (near 0.5700), which also coincides with early Feb highs.
  • Earlier we had a surge in the NZ PMI back above 50.0, while Jan NZ food prices were also very strong. This comes ahead of next week's RBNZ meeting. A 50bps cut is expected. Today's data outcomes may have more influence on the RBNZ outlook beyond next week's meeting.
  • NZ-US 2yr swap spreads also remain within recent ranges, last near -78bps, so we may need more upside on this front to sustain higher NZD levels.
  • AUD/USD has edged up, but at 0.6320 is still short of key resistance at 0.6331 (the Jan 24 high). Iron ore prices are higher, amid supply fears due to weather conditions in Western Australia
  • We have seen a continued rally in Hong Kong equities, while China markets are also higher today. Tech optimism continues to fuel gains.
  • US equity futures are up a touch, while US yields are little changed.
  • USD/JPY is near 152.80, unchanged for the session, but yen has been a notable underperformer the past week, particularly against EU currencies.
  • Looking ahead, we have EU GDP, while in the USD retail sales is likely to be the main focus point. Will also hear from the Fed's Logan. 
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The USD BBDXY index sits little changed in the first part of Friday dealing, last near 1292.4. We have seen slight outperformance from NZD and AUD, but aggregate moves are modest at this stage. 

  • The BBDXY index is comfortably down for the week, with EUR and EU related currencies outperforming. Ukraine peace hopes, coupled with no fresh tariffs in the near term, is weighing on USD sentiment.
  • For today, NZD/USD is up a little over 0.20%, last near 0.5690. This brings us back within striking distance of the 50-day EMA (near 0.5700), which also coincides with early Feb highs.
  • Earlier we had a surge in the NZ PMI back above 50.0, while Jan NZ food prices were also very strong. This comes ahead of next week's RBNZ meeting. A 50bps cut is expected. Today's data outcomes may have more influence on the RBNZ outlook beyond next week's meeting.
  • NZ-US 2yr swap spreads also remain within recent ranges, last near -78bps, so we may need more upside on this front to sustain higher NZD levels.
  • AUD/USD has edged up, but at 0.6320 is still short of key resistance at 0.6331 (the Jan 24 high). Iron ore prices are higher, amid supply fears due to weather conditions in Western Australia
  • We have seen a continued rally in Hong Kong equities, while China markets are also higher today. Tech optimism continues to fuel gains.
  • US equity futures are up a touch, while US yields are little changed.
  • USD/JPY is near 152.80, unchanged for the session, but yen has been a notable underperformer the past week, particularly against EU currencies.
  • Looking ahead, we have EU GDP, while in the USD retail sales is likely to be the main focus point. Will also hear from the Fed's Logan.