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ADP Miss Ahead May NFP; Stocks, Oil, Gold Bounce

US TSYS

Rates trade mildly higher after the bell, near middle of session range on light volumes (TYU2 appr 900k) w/ London out on two-day holiday.

  • No LIBOR settles today and tomorrow w/ London banks out for Spring and Platinum Jubilee holidays, settles resume Monday. Meanwhile, lead quarterly EDM2 holding steady at 98.2325. Moderating market repricing chances of additional rate hikes out the curve (odds of additional 50bp in Fall gaining).
  • Random volatility/thin liquidity continues. Tsys had bounced back near post-ADP highs (+128k vs. +300k est), reversed course as 30Y Bonds gapped lower/extend session lows (30YY tapped 3.1110%) reportedly in sympathy w/ selling in EGBs. Yield curves bear steepened off lows, 2s10s climbed to 28.921 high.
  • Wide range for Crude (Brent 115.5 low/121.5 high), initially weaker on assumption Saudi and UAE were going to make up for Russian lost capacity (down 1mn bpd since invasion). Instead, Russia remains joint biggest contributor based on quota but market knows they can't make up that number - neither can Nigeria, Iraq etc. Crude reversed/legged higher after headlines annc EU approves "partial Russian oil ban, sanctions on Sberbank", Bbg.
  • Fri data focus on May Employ Report (+325k vs. +428k prior), Fed Speak: Cleveland Fed Mester on CNBCs The Exchange to discuss employ report at 1340ET.
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