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Advertised Salaries Point To Contained Wage-Setting Psychology

AUSTRALIA DATA

SEEK advertised salaries for September showed continued growth up 0.3%m/m and 3.7%y/y. This has moderated from August’s 0.4% and 3.9% signalling that inflation and wage-setting psychology has not shifted significantly. The information from this report will be a relief to the RBA and validate its 25bp per meeting rate path.

  • This data also shows that even advertised salaries are not keeping up with inflation and so workers continue to face falling pay packets in real terms, which is already depressing consumer confidence and may eventually weigh on spending too.
  • It also suggests that growth in the official wages data should pick up again in Q3 but may peak around the turn of the year (see chart).
  • Advertised salary growth is off of its mid-year peak of 4.4%. But it is worth noting that to 2-decimal places September’s monthly rise is almost the same as August’s at 0.34% versus 0.35%. Also both the 3-month and 6-month measures of momentum are trending higher.
  • Strong monthly gains in Q3 last year are weighing on the current annual growth rate in SEEK advertised salaries.
Wages growth y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/SEEK

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