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AfD Strength Grabs Headlines, But Many Obstacles To Party Taking Power

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Strong results for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in state elections in Saxony and Thuringia have garnered significant media attention following the 1 September vote. The AfD came first in Thuringia (the only time to date the party has topped the poll in a state election) and second place, narrowly behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in Saxony.

  • The parties of the federal coalition (Olaf Scholz's SPD, Greens, FDP) all recorded notable declines in vote share, with the FDP and Greens losing all their seats in Thuringia having fallen under the 5% threshold. The far-left nationalist Bundnis Sara Wagenknecht (BSW) made significant gains, coming in third in both states.
  • While the results are headline-grabbing they should not be blown out of proportion. Both of these states sit in the former East Germany, where the AfD has its highest levels of support. They also contain less than 10% of the German population and comprise less than 5% of the country's economy. As such, these results should not necessarily be viewed as indicative of political sentiment across Germany.
  • Focus turns to coalition formation and whether the cordon sainitaire around the AfD remains in place. In each state the CDU would have to rely on the support of the BSW or progressive far-left Linke in order to gain a majority without the AfD, a difficult political partnership to say the least.

Chart 1. Saxony and Thuringia State Election Results 1 Sep, Seats

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Strong results for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in state elections in Saxony and Thuringia have garnered significant media attention following the 1 September vote. The AfD came first in Thuringia (the only time to date the party has topped the poll in a state election) and second place, narrowly behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in Saxony.

  • The parties of the federal coalition (Olaf Scholz's SPD, Greens, FDP) all recorded notable declines in vote share, with the FDP and Greens losing all their seats in Thuringia having fallen under the 5% threshold. The far-left nationalist Bundnis Sara Wagenknecht (BSW) made significant gains, coming in third in both states.
  • While the results are headline-grabbing they should not be blown out of proportion. Both of these states sit in the former East Germany, where the AfD has its highest levels of support. They also contain less than 10% of the German population and comprise less than 5% of the country's economy. As such, these results should not necessarily be viewed as indicative of political sentiment across Germany.
  • Focus turns to coalition formation and whether the cordon sainitaire around the AfD remains in place. In each state the CDU would have to rely on the support of the BSW or progressive far-left Linke in order to gain a majority without the AfD, a difficult political partnership to say the least.

Chart 1. Saxony and Thuringia State Election Results 1 Sep, Seats

Keep reading...Show less