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Ahead of Friday's UK Q3 GDP release,........>

UK DATA
UK DATA: Ahead of Friday's UK Q3 GDP release, MNI's Data Team note history
suggests a Q3 surprise is unlikely. Since 1998, quarterly UK Q3 GDP growth has
on average registered 0.015pp above consensus expectations. However, this
average is heavily skewed by relatively large upside surprises in 1999 (0.9pp)
and 2005 (0.8pp). In the last five years, analysts have called the q/q rate
correctly three times, with only marginal misses of 0.1pp to the upside and
downside respectively in 2013 and 2015. This shows that analysts have become
more adept at forecasting UK Q3 GDP. It also suggests that if Friday's number
does not register in line with the the MNI projection of 0.6% q/q, any
discrepancy is likely to be minimal. For the full report please contact us. 

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