Ahead of today's UK Retail Sales data....>

UK PREVIEW: Ahead of today's UK Retail Sales data Barclays expect it to contract

2% m/m in December and print 1.6% y/y. They add, credit card index were mixed in

December with Barclays spend trend up (Data including black Friday and cyber

Monday) but Visa Expenditure index down (worst December since 2012). Retail

price inflation is expected to have remained stable close to 3%.

- Nomura note that so far the evidence has been patchy - the CBI distributive

trades survey (volumes growth) has remained upbeat, and while the BRC measure of

growth remains in positive territory it is modest at 0.6% (nominal)/1.2% real

(like-for-like). Measures of footfall were down noticeably. Individual retailers

have reported varied success, with some retailers performing better than

expected (Next, for example) and some worse (Debenhams). Coming on the back of a

strong rise in official sales in November, they suspect that December may be

weaker and forecast flat sales volumes month-on-month.