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Ahead of tomorrow's UK Labour Market.....>

UK PREVIEW
UK PREVIEW: Ahead of tomorrow's UK Labour Market data at 0830GMT, analysts at
Barclays expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%. There was a
slight increase in February's claimant count; however, this remains consistent
with the current rate. Core earnings growth is likely to accelerate mildly.
- Nomura say last month's release was upbeat - the unemployment rate fell and
employment rose, while at the same time headline wage growth strengthened.
However, our favoured measure of wages - private ex-bonus - slowed at various
annualised periodicities following a flat reading in January. Wages will likely
remain the main focus of this report ahead of the BoE's May meeting.
- RBC note most interest most interest though is likely to be the news on
average earnings growth. The including bonus measure looks as though it could
hit 2.9% 3m/y from 2.8% 3/y, and if the ex-bonus measure reaches 2.8% 3m/y, as
expected, then it will be the highest rate since August 2015 and help reinforce
the case for a May Bank Rate hike.
- TD expect headline wage growth to hit the 3.0% mark, and for the BoE's
preferred measure, private sector regular pay, to rise to 2.9% y/y.

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